3502 Hidden Oaks Cove

3502 Hidden Oaks Cove
Behrens Ranch | Round Rock, Texas 78681
Market Analysis & Relaunch Strategy
Prepared for Josh McKay | September 2026
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
The Position
Behrens Ranch rarely offers what this home has: a pool and spa on an oversized greenbelt cul-de-sac, with more than 4,200 square feet.
Over the past twelve months, only two Behrens Ranch pool homes above 3,800 square feet have sold. Both went under contract in 20 days or less, at $925,000 and $950,000.
Buyer demand for this product is real. The current campaign has not converted it for two reasons, and both can be corrected:
Price. The home launched above the level the neighborhood has paid for comparable homes.
Presentation. The homes that set that level entered the market with documented updates and a finished, move-in-ready impression.
This analysis shows where the home belongs, when to bring it back, and what it takes to sell in the first 30 days rather than the next 90.
Property Snapshot
What Sets This Home Apart
Greenbelt Cul-de-Sac
The backyard has direct trail access, with no rear neighbors.
Resort Backyard
Saltwater pool, spa, and tanning ledge under a trellis-covered patio, set among mature trees.
Scale
At 4,251 square feet, this is one of the largest homes in the competitive set.
Main-Level Primary Suite
Includes a dressing room with custom built-ins.
Multigenerational Flexibility
A bonus room with a connecting bedroom, plus four walk-in closets upstairs.
Arrival & Convenience
A curved staircase, a two-story living room, a back staircase, and a porte-cochère with direct access to the kitchen.
Behrens Ranch Lifestyle
Lap and play pools, tennis courts, trails, a community center, and walkable schools.
These features justify top-quartile presentation. The strategy that follows is built on pairing them with a price the market will act on quickly.
The Market Around You: Round Rock 78681
What the numbers say, in plain terms: buyers are active, but they are selective and price-sensitive at this level.
5.9
Months of Supply
Balanced to buyer-leaning market across 78681.
18
Active Homes $800K–$999K
None closed last month; 16 closed in the last 90 days.
19
Median Days to Contract
For priced-right homes in the $800K–$999K tier.
98%
Of Asking Price
Homes that sold went under contract at about 98% of asking.
68%
Sellers Reducing
Of active listings in 78681 have reduced price; average reduction is 8%.
$219
Avg $/SF Year to Date
78681 average price per square foot, down 4.3%. August came in at $217.
The takeaway: buyers are not absent. They are waiting for the right house at the right number, and they are moving quickly when they find it.
Closed Comparable Sales — Behrens Ranch, Last 12 Months
All comparables are two-story homes. They are segmented by the feature that most affects value at this size: a private pool.
Pool homes, 3,600 SF and larger
Non-pool homes, 3,600 SF and larger
Not shown: 2203 Court Del Rey ($1,799,000; 4,734 SF on 0.42 acre, fully updated). It is an estate outlier and is excluded from the value analysis.
What the top of the market shared: Every sale at $925,000 or above advertised recent system and finish updates. These included new roofs, HVAC replacement, updated flooring and baths, and, in one case, a pre-listing inspection with repairs completed.
Active Competition — What Buyers Are Comparing Today
Behrens Ranch, 3,700 SF and larger, as of September 22, 2026
Where the home sits today: it has the second-highest price of the six, but its presentation is closer to the middle of the group. Our pricing discipline calls for the opposite position: top quartile on presentation, bottom quartile on price.
Bottom-quartile benchmark for this set: $206–$209 per SF. Applied to 4,251 SF, that indicates $876,000–$890,000.
Value Analysis — Adjusted From the Closest Comparable
Anchor comparable: 2502 Echo Wood Pl, sold July 2026 for $925,000. It is also a pool home on a greenbelt cul-de-sac, with similar age and layout.
Cross-Check
3000 Covington Pl ($950,000; 4,121 SF). After adjusting for its 2025 roof, 2022 AC, paid-off solar, concession, and market time, it indicates about $899,000.
Indicated Value Range
$885,000 – $925,000
The Launch-Price Pattern
Most Important Slide in This Analysis
Every Behrens Ranch sale in the past twelve months was measured against its original list price:
The cost of launching too high is 6.4 points of price and 68 additional days on market.

Homes that launch at the right number sell quickly and close close to asking. Homes that chase the market down sell for less than they would have at a correct launch, and they take months longer to do it.
What Happened to Every Home That Launched at $915,000 or Above
The pattern: $925,000–$950,000 has been achieved only by pool homes with documented updates, and only when they launched there. No home in this set reached that level by reducing into it.
When to Relaunch: Now, Winter, or Spring?
Median Days on Market by Month — Round Rock 78681
New Listings by Month — 78681, 2025
The Timing Decision, in Plain Terms
1
Relaunch This Fall — Live by Mid-October
Our Recommendation
Buyers shopping now are serious, and there are roughly half as many new listings competing for them as in spring. September activity in 78681 is firm: 26 closings month to date, with a median sale up 14.1% year over year. The window is real but short. The goal is to be under contract before Thanksgiving.
2
Launch During November–January
Avoid
This has historically been the slowest stretch, with median days on market of 57–80. It also produces the deepest discounts to asking price, from –3% to –4.8%.
3
Wait for Spring — Launch Late February
The Fallback
Homes sell fastest in spring, with median days on market of 13–15 in April and May. New listings nearly double, so there is more competition for buyers. It adds about five more months of carrying costs. Property taxes alone are about $1,470 a month. Rates offer no reason to wait: 30-year rates are near 7%, and major forecasters expect roughly 6.7%–6.8% through 2027.
Decision rule: If the home can be re-presented and live by October 15, relaunch now. If it cannot be live by November 1, take it off the market, complete the preparation over the winter, and launch the last week of February.
Three Pricing Scenarios
Read the modeled-close row first. It shows what each launch price has historically produced in Behrens Ranch.
If the Test tier is chosen, it must be paired with a written, pre-committed reduction to $889,000 at day 21. That captures any upside without giving buyers a reduction to use as leverage.
Our Recommendation
Relaunch at $889,000, live by October 15
$889,000 ($209/SF)
Puts the home at the bottom-quartile price line of its competitive set. Sits at the lower edge of its indicated value range ($885,000–$925,000).
Below $900,000
Priced below every competing pool home, and below $900,000, which opens the home to the large pool of buyers who search under $900K.
Monthly Payment Impact
At 20% down and a rate near 6.95%, principal and interest run about $4,710/mo at $889,000, vs. about $5,060/mo at $955,000. That $350-a-month difference is how buyers actually compare homes.
Pair Price with Presentation
A sharp number alone will not do it. The home must be the best-presented house at its price.
Pre-List Preparation: Earning the Top-Quartile Position
The homes that sold at the top of this neighborhood entered the market finished and documented. We recommend the same approach, completed in this order:
1
Clean-Out and Declutter
Clear every room, the garage, and the patio.
2
Pre-Listing Inspection
Address the meaningful findings, and publish the inspection and an improvements list with the listing.
3
Repairs and Lighting
Complete targeted repairs, repaint dated or high-contrast walls in a neutral tone, update lighting where dated, and replace worn carpet instead of offering an allowance.
4
Exterior and Outdoor Living
Trim trees and refresh the landscape, service the pool and spa, and power-wash the patio, porch, and drive.
5
Professional Staging
Stage the main living areas, the primary suite, the bonus room, and the pool and patio.
6
Photography
Full professional photography, including twilight and aerial images that show the greenbelt setting.
We will obtain bids for each item and review the budget with you before any work begins.
The FPG Marketing & Concierge Plan
Relaunch as a New Story
New photography, new copy, and new positioning built around the greenbelt, the resort backyard, and the scale of the home.
Complete Visual Assets
Staged photography, twilight and aerial images, a video walkthrough, and a measured floor plan.
Broker Outreach
A preview for top North Austin and Round Rock agents, plus direct outreach through the eXp Luxury network.
Targeted Digital
Campaigns aimed at relocation and move-up buyers along the North Austin employment corridor.
Launch Weekend
Public open houses, with private showings coordinated by our team.
Concierge Coordination
We manage vendors, schedules, and access, so the preparation happens without disrupting your routine.
Weekly Reporting
Showings, feedback, online activity, and competing-listing movement, reviewed with you every week.
The First 30 Days
Next Steps
01
Confirm Listing Agreement
Confirm the terms and timing of the current listing agreement.
02
Walk the Home Together
Walk the home together to finalize the preparation list.
03
Collect Bids & Schedule
Collect bids and schedule the inspection, repairs, and staging.
04
Confirm Price & Date
Confirm the relaunch price and the October 15 target date.
05
Review Net Sheet
Review the net sheet at the confirmed price. It will be provided separately.
06
Approve Marketing Plan
Approve the photography, staging, and marketing plan.
Daniel & Jacquelyn Foreman | Foreman Property Group | eXp Realty Luxury
512-866-6165
Data: Unlock MLS — Behrens Ranch residential sales, actives, and withdrawn/expired listings for the trailing 12 months, plus Round Rock 78681 market reports, as of September 22, 2026. Adjustments are market estimates for pricing strategy, not an appraisal.